Impacts of plastic and paper bag legislation on consumer behavior in the United States: Quantitative evidence from a statewide survey in Vermont

In response to the growing environmental problems directly or indirectly caused by plastic bags, many national and local governments around the world have enacted legislation or ordinances to ban or tax plastic bags and associated products like paper bags. While the effectiveness of such policy interventions is highly dependent on consumer reaction and behavior change, there are limited empirical studies on how such legislation and ordinances have changed consumer behavior in terms of their plastic and paper bag use in the United States. This paper empirically assesses the impacts of the state-level legislation in Vermont that has banned single-use plastic bags and imposed a fee on paper bags. Findings from a statewide survey conducted in 2022 indicate that self-reported average weekly use of plastic bags dropped by 91.47% and the average use of paper bags increased by 6.37% after the legislation went into effect. Further, analysis results of the respondents divided into six typologies according to their use of paper bags before and after the legislation suggest that, while the tax effect of the paper bag fee was negative and significant and the substitution effect of the plastic bag ban on paper bag use was positive and significant, the positive substitution effect was likely stronger than the negative tax effect and therefore resulted in a positive but insignificant total effect on paper bag use. The empirical findings also suggest strong public support for the plastic bag ban, limited support for a potential paper bag ban, and a high level of public satisfaction with the legislation’s implementation and enforcement.