Land-Use Patterns and Supply Chain Relationship in Upper Parana Atlantic Forest

The expansion and intensification of agriculture are widely recognized as major drivers of biodiversity loss. While research has primarily focused on deforestation frontiers, few studies have linked spatial-temporal land-cover dynamics to the organizational arrangements of agro-industrial supply chains. This study addresses this gap by analyzing land-use systems in the Upper Parana Atlantic Forest in Argentina, a priority biodiversity hotspot. We identify trends and patterns of agricultural and forest land-use change over the past two decades. We interpret these patterns in relation to the territorial integration of agro-industrial supply chains, using secondary data sources. We divided the study area into hexagonal cells of approximately 100 km². Interannual trends in native forest cover and dominant land uses were analyzed from 2000 to 2019. Trends were estimated by regressing the proportional area of land-cover classes derived from the MapBiomas Trinational Atlantic Forest against calendar year. To explore landscape homogenization, we regressed Shannon land-cover diversity indices over time. Our results reveal two contrasting spatial configurations. Some landscapes are dominated by a single land use, showing increasing homogenization. Others maintain a diversity of land uses and remain heterogeneous. These configurations seem closely associated with transaction modalities between primary producers and agro-industrial actors. In turn, these arrangements influence their impacts on native forest cover and habitat conservation outside protected areas. Understanding how agro-industrial supply chains are territorially embedded is critical for identifying incentives to foster more sustainable land-use trajectories and support biodiversity conservation, like the design of effective governance systems for Other Effective Area-Based Conservation Measures (OECMs).