Anticipating Pest Expansion Under Climate Change: Ecological Risks of Scyphophorus acupunctatus to Agave Species in Mexico

Climate change is reshaping species distributions worldwide, with potential consequences for biodiversity and ecosystem services. In Mexico, the agave weevil (Scyphophorus acupunctatus), a pest of ecologically and economically important agave species, poses a threat to both wild populations and cultivated systems. In this study, we employed an ecological niche modeling framework to assess the present and future potential distributions of the agave weevil and seven significant Agave species (A. americana, A. tequilana, A. salmiana, A. angustifolia, A. cupreata, A. karwinskii, and A. potatorum) for the 2041-2060 period. Based on bioclimatic variables and two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), we projected shifts in species distributions and evaluated the potential overlap between the weevil and its host plants. Our findings revealed divergent responses: while suitable habitats for several Agave species are projected to decline, the climatic suitability for S. acupunctatus is likely to expand, particularly under high-emission scenarios. Niche overlap analysis predicts an increased co-occurrence between the weevil and economically critical species such as A. tequilana and A. americana, representing potential risks to the tequila and mezcal industries. This study establishes a robust bioclimatic baseline for conservation planning and adaptive management, identifying regions where monitoring and mitigation should be prioritized under climate change, and emphasizing the need for integrated approaches, such as biological control and habitat conservation, to safeguard the cultural and economic heritage tied to these emblematic plants.