Systems Modeling of the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems Nexus: Insights from a Region Facing Structural Water Scarcity in Southern Spain

The complex relationship between water, energy, food, and ecological systems, known as the WEFE nexus, has emerged as a major topic in the debate about sustainable economic development and resource management. This subject is of special interest in Mediterranean coastal areas as rapid economic expansion driven by population growth, higher influx of tourists, and intensification of agriculture is leading to structural water scarcity conditions. However, addressing the diverse range of issues associated with the nexus is a difficult task due to the existence of intricate interconnections, interdependencies, and nonlinearities within and across its various components. Accordingly, this case study applies a combination of participatory systems modeling and network analysis tools to yield insights into the complexity of this nexus in Axarquia, a region with features that make it an example of water-stressed jurisdictions in the Mediterranean. Overall, our results provide a strong foundation to understand the dynamics that govern this nexus in regions where the availability of freshwater resources is a significant concern. Furthermore, they lay the groundwork for the development of models and scenarios to simulate the impact of various policies and interventions on the overall system.