How does industrial transition drive low-carbon transition? Evidence from China’s resource-based cities

With the proposal of dual-carbon targets, the low-carbon transition of resource-based cities (RBCs) has become an urgent task. Industrial transition is an essential method of ensuring energy supplies and achieving the “double carbon” goal. However, an in-depth discussion on the theoretical issues associated with the intrinsic drivers and pathways of influence between industrial structure and carbon emissions is lacking. This study investigates the mechanism underlying industrial transitions and associated effects on carbon emission intensity (CAIN) and provides guidance for designing low-carbon transition pathways for RBCs. To achieve this goal, a theoretical framework is constructed to examine the direct and indirect effects of industrial structure on CAIN and an empirical analysis is performed on the impact of industrial structure upgrades on CAIN using panel data from 107 RBCs in China from 2002 to 2017. The results show that: (1) Industrial diversification has more significant impacts than industrial specialization on reducing CAIN. However, the inhibitory effect of industrial diversification on CAIN is weaker in nonresource-depleted cities than in resource-depleted cities; (2) technological innovation and external investment have a significant mediating effect on the relationship between industrial structure and carbon emissions. Moreover, the impact of technological innovation on reducing CAIN through industrial structure transition is much greater than that of external investment; (3) RBCs with low industrial transition potential should focus on investments and innovation capacity, while high-potential RBCs should optimize industrial structure. Tailored policies considering local requirements and development stages are essential for achieving the “double carbon” goal in RBCs.