Exploring the Impact of Climate Change on Tea Production in Bangladesh: Analyzing Short- and Long-Run Asymmetrical Effects

The study analyzed the asymmetric causal relationship between climate change and tea production in Bangladesh using time-series data from 1976 to 2020. The nonlinear auto regressive distributed lag (NARDL) model was employed to investigate the long-run and short-run effects of three climatic variables (average annual temperature, rainfall, and carbon dioxide emissions) on tea production. The results show the presence of a long-run relationship between the variables. The WALD test indicates asymmetry in average annual temperature, rainfall, and carbon dioxide emissions over the long run, and only average annual temperature has an asymmetry with the short-run. The short-run results suggest that previous tea production negatively affects current tea output and that a positive temperature shock in the previous period has a positive effect, while a negative temperature shock in the previous period has a negative impact. Negative rainfall and an increase in carbon dioxide emissions have a negative impact, while a decrease in carbon dioxide emissions has a positive impact on tea production. In the long run, both positive and negative temperature shocks have a negative impact, while both positive and negative rainfall shocks have a positive impact on tea production. An increase and decrease in carbon dioxide emissions both have a negative impact. This study suggests that policymakers should implement measures to maintain optimal temperature and rainfall ranges to maximize tea production while reducing carbon dioxide emissions. Short-term policies should incentivize sustainable practices and support farmers during periods of low production. Regular monitoring and research and development are recommended to promote sustainable tea production and minimize environmental impact.