Systematic scenario modeling for priority assessment of sustainable development goals in China under interaction and uncertainty

As an integrated and indivisible agenda encompassing the realms of economics, society, and the environment, the sustainable development goals (SDGs) manifest intricate interactions and uncertainties. These complexities pose numerous challenges for nations in their pursuit of the SDGs, including the need to harmonize SDGs (co-benefits or trade-offs), prioritize SDGs, and shape forward-thinking and coordinated development pathways. Consequently, this study introduces a systematic scenario modeling approach, founded upon the CIA-ISM framework, to assess SDG priority and analyze development pathways. The approach is a scalable and generic modeling approach that can effectively addresses the interactions between the SDGs while accounting for uncertainty. Modeling with the focus on the 17 SDGs, the implementation of the CIA-ISM framework initially engages the experts to estimate the occurrence likelihood and interaction degree of SDGs, thereby facilitating priority assessment, causal scenario generation, and sensitivity analysis. This study utilizes China as a demonstrative application for the proposed framework and validates the outcomes through expert feedback and pertinent literature. Based on the outcomes, three SDG implementation pathways of China are recommended with the most robust and foundational causal loops G1 and G5 as the starting point: G1 + G5 → G8 → G3 → G7; G1 + G5 → G2 → G13 → G15, and G1 + G5 → G2 → G6 + G12. Overall, the CIA-ISM-based scenario modeling approach proves adept at capturing the prioritized and hierarchically clear causal pathways of the SDGs, arising from their intricate interaction, while factoring in uncertainty.