“Who emits for whom”: did the digital trade networks increase carbon emissions transfers?

Increased participation in global value chains (GVCs) and the relocation of carbon-intensive industries due to the rise of digital trade lead to more carbon emission transfers. In order to identify “who emits for whom”, this paper constructs digital trade and emission transfer networks from the perspective of GVCs, and delves into the network structure as well as the impact of digital trade on carbon emission transfers using quadratic assignment procedure (QAP) and temporal exponential random graph models (TERGM). The results show that the evolution of both networks exhibited the characteristics of agglomeration, closure, and stability, which were initially dominated by the United States and Germany, gradually restructured by China; evidence that digital trade leads to more emission transfers, especially from low-income to high-income countries (low_high), was found in both static and dynamic network analysis. Moreover, the classical assumptions of scale effects, Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) effects, and the composition effects were verified in the low_high emission transfers. In doing so, this study contributes to raising awareness about the long-term pollution transfers associated with the surge in digital trade, and emphasizes that achieving a sustainable and low-carbon world requires collective efforts from both developing and developed economies.