Coupling coordination relationship between high-quality economic development and carbon emission performance in China: degree measurement, spatio-temporal evolution, and driving factors

The association between high-quality economic development (HED) and carbon emission performance (CEP), remains vital in promoting sustainable development. We investigated the degree of coupling coordination between HED and CEP (DCCHC) in 173 prefecture-level cities throughout China from 2011 to 2019, looking at its spatiotemporal development and influential factors. Findings demonstrate that the DCCHC grew with time, predominantly characterized by seriously unbalanced and moderately unbalanced conditions. The DCCHC showed a strong positive spatial autocorrelation and a “high in the east, low in the west” distribution pattern. Additionally, the region’s DCCHC followed a “U-shaped” trajectory in relation to economic development. The opening-up and digital economy promoted the region’s DCCHC, whereas the energy consumption structure posed inhibitory effects. Conversely, the DCCHC of neighboring regions displayed an inverted “U-shaped” association with economic development. Technological innovation hindered neighboring regions’ DCCHC, while environmental regulation contributed to the DCCHC of adjacent areas. Technological innovation, environmental regulation and digital economy emerged as the primary factors affecting the DCCHC in 2011, shifting by 2019 to digital economy, technological innovation, and economic development. The interaction between these factors exhibited two-factor enhancement, nonlinear enhancement, and single-factor nonlinear weakening. These findings not only aid in refining China’s economic and environmental policies but also offer important lessons for other nations in shaping similar strategies.