A spatial scenario planning framework for land use decision-making: case study of Gorgan township, Iran

This paper responds to the critical need for advanced decision-making tools in regional land use planning by developing an interdisciplinary spatial scenario planning framework based on morphological analysis. The research utilizes a case study of Gorgan Township (Iran), with the active participation of experts, to illustrate the practical implementation of the framework. The framework involves five steps: 1- defining a problem space; 2- conducting a consistency assessment; 3- performing a probability assessment; 4- generating scenarios using morphological analysis; and 5- georeferencing the scenarios. The study’s main methodological contribution lies in generating spatial robust and distinctive scenarios, specifically named for this research, that portray potential future land utilization patterns in the study area. These scenarios are consistent, probable, and plausible, ranked by their probability of occurrence, including Wounded City, Industrial City, Tired Farmer, Beautiful City, and Green and Peaceful City. For instance, the Wounded City scenario anticipates the depletion of natural land features due to urban and industrial expansion, impacting water resources, forests, and rangelands. Moreover, the findings across all scenarios highlight the adverse impacts of agricultural development on water resources, forests, and rangelands, emphasizing the need for informed land management strategies. These findings empower decision-makers to understand the consequences of present decisions and land use transformations, facilitating decision-making in regional land use planning for sustainable and resilient development amidst complex and uncertain challenges.