IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/empeco/v69y2025i2d10.1007_s00181-025-02743-y.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Third-country investment effects of the belt and road initiative: evidence from China’s overseas direct investment

Author

Listed:
  • Jian Chen

    (Southeast University)

  • Xiao-qin Dong

    (Southeast University)

  • Wei Li

    (Southeast University)

  • Di Zhao

    (Jinling Institute of Technology)

Abstract

Using the difference-in-difference (DID) model, this empirical study constructs the treated group and the control group based on a series of subgroup observations and explores the third-country investment effect of the Chinese-led Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) from 2003 to 2019. The findings show that while the BRI enhances China’s outward direct investment (ODI) in Belt and Road (B&R) member countries, this institutional arrangement adversely affects China’s ODI in non-B&R nations. Further heterogeneity analysis reveals varying effects of the BRI on third-country ODI. A promotional effect is more pronounced in developed Western European nations, whereas a significant suppressive impact is observed on Chinese ODI in African nations. Notably, lower-ranked B&R members exert a suppressive influence on third-country investments in non-B&R nations under the BRI. Our study offers valuable insights for accurately assessing the third-country investment implications of the BRI and devising an optimal strategy for China’s global ODI.

Suggested Citation

  • Jian Chen & Xiao-qin Dong & Wei Li & Di Zhao, 2025. "Third-country investment effects of the belt and road initiative: evidence from China’s overseas direct investment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(2), pages 951-978, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:69:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-025-02743-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-025-02743-y
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s00181-025-02743-y
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s00181-025-02743-y?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:69:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s00181-025-02743-y. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.