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Refining methods for attributing health impacts to climate change: a heat-mortality case study in Zürich

Author

Listed:
  • Rupert F. Stuart-Smith

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera

    (University of Bern
    University of Bern)

  • Sihan Li

    (University of Sheffield)

  • Friederike E.L. Otto

    (Imperial College London)

  • Kristine Belesova

    (Imperial College London)

  • Andy Haines

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Luke J. Harrington

    (University of Waikato)

  • Jeremy J. Hess

    (University of Washington)

  • Rashmi Venkatraman

    (London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
    London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine)

  • Thom Wetzer

    (University of Oxford
    University of Oxford)

  • Alistair Woodward

    (University of Auckland)

  • Kristie L. Ebi

    (University of Washington)

Abstract

Heat-related deaths occur throughout the summer months, peak during heatwaves, and are affected by temperature and exposed populations’ sensitivities to meteorological conditions. Previous studies found that climate change is increasing heat-related mortality worldwide. We build on existing epidemiological methods to shed light on the adverse effects of climate change on human health. We address limitations in existing methods and apply refined approaches to assess heat mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Zürich, Switzerland, over 50 years (1969–2018) including a case study of summer 2018. Our methodological refinements affect how counterfactual climate scenarios are derived, and facilitate accounting for changing vulnerability, and assessing impacts during and outside heatwaves. We find nearly 1,700 heat-related deaths attributable to human-induced climate change between 1969 and 2018. Declining vulnerability to heat avoided at least 700 heat-related deaths. The approach described here could be applied elsewhere to quantify the effect of climate change on other health outcomes.

Suggested Citation

  • Rupert F. Stuart-Smith & Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera & Sihan Li & Friederike E.L. Otto & Kristine Belesova & Andy Haines & Luke J. Harrington & Jeremy J. Hess & Rashmi Venkatraman & Thom Wetzer & Alistair W, 2025. "Refining methods for attributing health impacts to climate change: a heat-mortality case study in Zürich," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 178(9), pages 1-22, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:178:y:2025:i:9:d:10.1007_s10584-025-04011-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-025-04011-5
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