Multidisciplinary assessment of the impact of temperature rise and headwind on aircraft take-off performance

The projected rise in global temperatures and evolving wind patterns are expected to increasingly challenge aviation operations, particularly during the take-off phase, when aircraft performance is highly sensitive to ambient atmospheric conditions. In this study, a multidisciplinary framework is developed to quantify the combined impact of temperature rise and headwind variability on take-off field length (TOFL) at 60 major global airports. Climate projections are drawn from a multi-model ensemble of 26 bias-corrected members across six CMIP6 models, using CDFt bias correction method with historical ERA5 reanalysis as reference. The correction is validated over the historical period and applied to future scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), with daily maximum temperature and near-surface wind data used as inputs to a physics-based aircraft performance model. This model incorporates a semi-empirical TOFL formulation, thermodynamic thrust estimation, regulatory climb constraints, and wind effects. Results indicate a global mean TOFL increase of 4.5% under SSP1-2.6 and 9.5% under SSP5-8.5 by the end-of-century period (2075-2100), with regional maxima exceeding 20% at airports in tropical and subtropical climates. The frequency of inoperable days, defined as days when conditions prevent safe take-off at a given take-off weight, is projected to rise substantially, particularly at hot and high-altitude airports, with some locations experiencing more than doubling in such events under SSP5-8.5. This integrated, ensemble-based assessment underscores the operational risks posed by climate change and provides a foundation for adaptive strategies in aircraft performance standards and long-term airport infrastructure planning.