The nexus of climate and conflict in the Lake Chad Region: what we know, don’t know and need to know

Despite the substantial body of knowledge available regarding the nexus between climate and conflict, this knowledge remains scattered, fragmented and incomplete. There are various interpretations of how this nexus plays out, as well as different perspectives on the spectrum of "climate conflict" in fragile and conflict-affected areas. This is particularly the case in the Lake Chad region, an area that is often portrayed as a unique "testbed" for understanding climate conflict relations. This study systematically mapped and analysed published work on the nexus of climate and conflict, synthesising narratives and unpacking evidence on what we know, do not know and need to know about the nexus in the Lake Chad region. Our findings outline six key areas of knowledge that provide evidence on the nexus, including (i) how the nexus has evolved with the ongoing increase in regional climatic stress where temperatures are rising 1.5 times faster than the global average, (ii) whether studies link climatic events to different stages of the conflict cycle or the conflict continuum, and (iii) whether climatic events also introduce new forms of conflict along the conflict continuum. We note that studies failed to ask how fragility (assessed in terms of lack of state legitimacy, capacity and authority) shapes group identity/solidarity and spatiotemporal variations in climate-conflict nexus patterns and impacts. We suggest that the spectrum of what is considered "climate conflict" be expanded, paying particular attention to the continuum (including phases and cycles) of conflict and how different conflict types interact and reinforce one another under climate shocks. Ultimately, knowledge co-creation can help integrate fragmented evidence about the nexus, fostering a unified, coherent and verifiable body of knowledge that can support joint climate and peace initiatives and wider transformative change across the region.