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Soil freeze depth variability across Eurasia during 1850–2100

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaoqing Peng

    (Lanzhou University)

  • Tingjun Zhang

    (Lanzhou University)

  • Oliver W. Frauenfeld

    (Texas A&M University)

  • Ran Du

    (Lanzhou University)

  • Qing Wei

    (Lanzhou University)

  • Benben Liang

    (Lanzhou University)

Abstract

Soil freeze depth (SFD) is an important indicator of cryospheric and climate change. Changes in SFD have important effects on hydrology, the energy balance, carbon exchange, and ecosystem diversity. However, quantifying and predicting SFD at large scales remains a challenge due to sparse long-term observations. This study employs the Stefan solution combined with 16 of the coupled model inter-comparison project phase 5 (CMIP5) models over the historical period (1850–2005) and three representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) for 2006–2100, the Climatic Research Unit dataset (1901–2013), and hundreds of soil temperature, air temperature, precipitation, and snow depth sites to analyze the spatiotemporal variability of SFD in Eurasia under historical and projected climate change. During 1850–2005, a statistically significant SFD decrease of 0.49 ± 0.04 cm/decade is observed. Spatially, the biggest decreases are generally in Siberia and on the Tibetan Plateau. There is a projected decrease in 2006–2100 SFD of 4.58 ± 0.26, 1.85 ± 0.21, and 0.45 ± 0.18 cm/decade for RCP 8.5, 4.5, 2.6, respectively. These variations in SFD provide key insights into spatiotemporal changes in climate, and facilitate improved understanding of variation in frozen ground across Eurasia.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaoqing Peng & Tingjun Zhang & Oliver W. Frauenfeld & Ran Du & Qing Wei & Benben Liang, 2020. "Soil freeze depth variability across Eurasia during 1850–2100," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 158(3), pages 531-549, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:158:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s10584-019-02586-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s10584-019-02586-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yanlin Zhang & Guodong Cheng & Xin Li & Huijun Jin & Dawen Yang & Gerald N. Flerchinger & Xiaoli Chang & Victor F. Bense & Xujun Han & Ji Liang, 2017. "Influences of Frozen Ground and Climate Change on Hydrological Processes in an Alpine Watershed: A Case Study in the Upstream Area of the Hei'he River, Northwest China," Permafrost and Periglacial Processes, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(2), pages 420-432, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mikhail Yu. Filimonov & Yaroslav K. Kamnev & Aleksandr N. Shein & Nataliia A. Vaganova, 2022. "Modeling the Temperature Field in Frozen Soil under Buildings in the City of Salekhard Taking into Account Temperature Monitoring," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-21, July.
    2. Georgii A. Alexandrov & Veronika A. Ginzburg & Gregory E. Insarov & Anna A. Romanovskaya, 2021. "CMIP6 model projections leave no room for permafrost to persist in Western Siberia under the SSP5-8.5 scenario," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-11, December.

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    Keywords

    Soil freeze depth; CMIP5; Eurasia; Climate change;
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