Impacts of a nuclear war in South Asia on soybean and maize production in the Midwest United States
Crop production would decline in the Midwestern United States from climate change following a regional nuclear conflict between India and Pakistan. Using Agro-IBIS, a dynamic agroecosystem model, we simulated the response of maize and soybeans to cooler, drier, and darker conditions from war-related smoke. We combined observed climate conditions for the states of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, and Missouri with output from a general circulation climate model simulation that injected 5 Tg of elemental carbon into the upper troposphere. Both maize and soybeans showed notable yield reductions for a decade after the event. Maize yields declined 10–40 % while soybean yields dropped 2–20 %. Temporal variation in magnitude of yield for both crops generally followed the variation in climatic anomalies, with the greatest decline in the 5 years following the 5 Tg event and then less, but still substantial yield decline, for the rest of the decade. Yield reduction for both crops was linked to changes in growing period duration and, less markedly, to reduced precipitation and altered maximum daily temperature during the growing season. The seasonal average of daily maximum temperature anomalies, combined with precipitation and radiation changes, had a quadratic relationship to yield differences; small (0 °C) and large (−3 °C) maximum temperature anomalies combined with other changes led to increased yield loss, but medium changes (−1 °C) had small to neutral effects on yield. The exact timing of the temperature changes during the various crop growth phases also had an important effect. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2013
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 116 (2013)
Issue (Month): 2 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.springer.com/economics/journal/10584|
|Order Information:||Web: http://link.springer.de/orders.htm|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:climat:v:116:y:2013:i:2:p:373-387. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla)or (Christopher F Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.