IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/aodasc/v9y2022i5d10.1007_s40745-022-00418-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Forecasting the Trends of Covid-19 and Causal Impact of Vaccines Using Bayesian Structural time Series and ARIMA

Author

Listed:
  • Muhammed Navas Thorakkattle

    (Aligarh Muslim University)

  • Shazia Farhin

    (Aligarh Muslim University)

  • Athar Ali khan

    (Aligarh Muslim University)

Abstract

Several researchers have used standard time series models to analyze future patterns of COVID-19 and the Causal impact of vaccinations in various countries. Bayesian structural time series (BSTS) and ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models are used to forecast time series. The goal of this study is to look at a much more adaptable effective methodology for dissecting the major components of a time series that breaks down the main parts of a time series. Within the period of March 1, 2020, to June 30, 2021, we used these state space model to explore the forecast patterns of COVID-19 in five afflicted nations.In addition, we used intervention analysis under BSTS models to examine the casual effect of vaccines in these countries, and we reached higher levels of accuracy than ARIMA models. According to forecasts, the number of confirmed cases in the United States, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and India will climb by 1.17%, 19.4%, 15.5%, 13.8% , and 8%, respectively, during the next 60 days. On the other side, death rates in the United States, the United Kingdom, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and India are expected to rise by 2.7%, 3.5%, 15.8%, 9.4%, and 14.8%, respectively. In addition, By using effective and quick vaccination, the United States, United Kingdom, and UAE have been able to reduce the number of mortality. On the other hand, vaccination is currently unable to decrease the rate of cases and deaths in India. Overall, the Indian healthcare system is likely to be seriously over-burdened in the next month. Though the USA and UK have managed to cut down the rates of COVID-19 deaths,but in UK and UAE number of confirmed cases are high as compared to other nations,so serious efforts will be required to keep these controllable. On the other hand,To keep things under control, Bahrain and four other countries has to speed up vaccinations.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammed Navas Thorakkattle & Shazia Farhin & Athar Ali khan, 2022. "Forecasting the Trends of Covid-19 and Causal Impact of Vaccines Using Bayesian Structural time Series and ARIMA," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(5), pages 1025-1047, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:aodasc:v:9:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1007_s40745-022-00418-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s40745-022-00418-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s40745-022-00418-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s40745-022-00418-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harvey,Andrew C., 1991. "Forecasting, Structural Time Series Models and the Kalman Filter," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521405737, October.
    2. Obryan Poyser, 2019. "Exploring the dynamics of Bitcoin’s price: a Bayesian structural time series approach," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 9(1), pages 29-60, March.
    3. Sanjay Kumar, 2020. "Monitoring Novel Corona Virus (COVID-19) Infections in India by Cluster Analysis," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 417-425, September.
    4. Feroze, Navid, 2020. "Forecasting the patterns of COVID-19 and causal impacts of lockdown in top five affected countries using Bayesian Structural Time Series Models," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. James M. Tien, 2017. "Internet of Things, Real-Time Decision Making, and Artificial Intelligence," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 149-178, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tousifur Rahman & Partha Jyoti Hazarika & M. Masoom Ali & Manash Pratim Barman, 2022. "Three-Inflated Poisson Distribution and its Application in Suicide Cases of India During Covid-19 Pandemic," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(5), pages 1103-1127, October.
    2. Vrushabh Gada & Madhura Shegaonkar & Madhura Inamdar & Sharath Dinesh & Darshan Sapariya & Vedant Konde & Mahesh Warang & Ninad Mehendale, 2022. "Data Analysis of COVID-19 Hospital Records Using Contextual Patient Classification System," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(5), pages 945-965, October.
    3. Takahiro Yabe & Yunchang Zhang & Satish Ukkusuri, 2020. "Quantifying the Economic Impact of Extreme Shocks on Businesses using Human Mobility Data: a Bayesian Causal Inference Approach," Papers 2004.11121, arXiv.org.
    4. Ehab M. Almetwally, 2022. "The Odd Weibull Inverse Topp–Leone Distribution with Applications to COVID-19 Data," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 121-140, February.
    5. Weijia Xu & Aihua Li & Lu Wei, 2022. "The Impact of COVID-19 on China’s Capital Market and Major Industry Sectors," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(5), pages 983-1007, October.
    6. Anjan Mukherjee & Abhik Mukherjee, 2022. "Interval-Valued Intuitionistic Fuzzy Soft Rough Approximation Operators and Their Applications in Decision Making Problem," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 611-625, June.
    7. Elphas Okango & Henry Mwambi, 2022. "Dictionary Based Global Twitter Sentiment Analysis of Coronavirus (COVID-19) Effects and Response," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 175-186, February.
    8. Vali Borimnejad & Sahar Dehyouri, 2022. "Content Analysis of the Economic Problems of Covid-19 Disease on Businesses: A Case Study of Tehran Province, Iran," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(5), pages 1069-1083, October.
    9. S. Chakraborty, 2023. "Monitoring COVID-19 Cases and Vaccination in Indian States and Union Territories Using Unsupervised Machine Learning Algorithm," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 967-989, August.
    10. Rakhal Das & Anjan Mukherjee & Binod Chandra Tripathy, 2022. "Application of Neutrosophic Similarity Measures in Covid-19," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 55-70, February.
    11. Siying Guo & Jianxuan Liu & Qiu Wang, 2022. "Effective Learning During COVID-19: Multilevel Covariates Matching and Propensity Score Matching," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(5), pages 967-982, October.
    12. Ondrej Bednar, 2021. "The Causal Impact of the Rapid Czech Interest Rate Hike on the Czech Exchange Rate Assessed by the Bayesian Structural Time Series Model," International Journal of Economic Sciences, European Research Center, vol. 10(2), pages 1-17, December.
    13. Anurag Pathak & Manoj Kumar & Sanjay Kumar Singh & Umesh Singh, 2022. "Statistical Inferences: Based on Exponentiated Exponential Model to Assess Novel Corona Virus (COVID-19) Kerala Patient Data," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 101-119, February.
    14. Muhammad Ahsan-ul-Haq & Mukhtar Ahmed & Javeria Zafar & Pedro Luiz Ramos, 2022. "Modeling of COVID-19 Cases in Pakistan Using Lifetime Probability Distributions," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 141-152, February.
    15. Avanzi, Benjamin & Taylor, Greg & Vu, Phuong Anh & Wong, Bernard, 2020. "A multivariate evolutionary generalised linear model framework with adaptive estimation for claims reserving," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 50-71.
    16. David Bolder & Shudan Liu, 2007. "Examining Simple Joint Macroeconomic and Term-Structure Models: A Practitioner's Perspective," Staff Working Papers 07-49, Bank of Canada.
    17. Heba Soltan Mohamed & M. Masoom Ali & Haitham M. Yousof, 2023. "The Lindley Gompertz Model for Estimating the Survival Rates: Properties and Applications in Insurance," Annals of Data Science, Springer, vol. 10(5), pages 1199-1216, October.
    18. Tobias Hartl & Roland Jucknewitz, 2022. "Approximate state space modelling of unobserved fractional components," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(1), pages 75-98, January.
    19. Moshe Buchinsky & Phillip Leslie, 2010. "Educational Attainment and the Changing U.S. Wage Structure: Dynamic Implications on Young Individuals' Choices," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(3), pages 541-594, July.
    20. Roberto Moro-Visconti & Salvador Cruz Rambaud & Joaquín López Pascual, 2023. "Artificial intelligence-driven scalability and its impact on the sustainability and valuation of traditional firms," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-14, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    BSTS; CausalImpact; MCMC; ARIMA;
    All these keywords.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:aodasc:v:9:y:2022:i:5:d:10.1007_s40745-022-00418-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.