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Forecasting time series by long-memory models for count data with an application to price jumps

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Listed:
  • Luisa Bisaglia

    (University of Padova)

  • Massimiliano Caporin

    (University of Padova)

  • Matteo Grigoletto

    (University of Padova)

Abstract

We discuss the estimation and forecast of long-memory models for count data time series. We first demonstrate by Monte Carlo simulations that the Whittle estimator is the most appropriate for recovering the memory degree of a count data time series. In the following, we introduce the possibility of forecasting count data by exploiting the infinite autoregressive representation of the model. We complete our analysis with an empirical example in which we verify the predictability of the price jump numbers.

Suggested Citation

  • Luisa Bisaglia & Massimiliano Caporin & Matteo Grigoletto, 2025. "Forecasting time series by long-memory models for count data with an application to price jumps," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 109(3), pages 417-441, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:alstar:v:109:y:2025:i:3:d:10.1007_s10182-025-00538-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s10182-025-00538-1
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    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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