The process of import substitution in the food market as the object of modeling

The processes of import substitution in agriculture and the state of agri-food markets are considered in the article in the context of the development of a model of system dynamics in AnyLogic environment. The need to use the simulation method is explained by the complexity of the competitive environment in terms of protectionism policy. The purpose of the work is to develop a mechanism for regulating the food market: determining the equilibrium volumes of domestic production, imports and exports, in which the level of consumer prices and incomes of producers are harmonized. The results of the model on the example of poultry meat market showed that modern export volumes are clearly insufficient. If the physical volume of exports does not increase by about three times, the incomes of producers will fall to a critical level and, consequently, the upward trend in supply may change direction. The novelty of the work lies in the fact that the results of modeling can calculate the characteristics of the industry market in a state of equilibrium: the volume of exports and imports, domestic production, price, stocks, etc. The main conclusions and provisions of the work can be used for the development of economic policy measures and management decisions on the regulation of food markets.