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A Strategy To Improve The Macroeconomic Forecasts Accuracy In Romania

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  • MIHAELA BRATU (SIMIONESCU)

Abstract

In this article, the accuracy of forecasts for inflation rate, unemployment, exchange rate and GDP index provided by Institute of Economic Forecasting (IEF) and National Commission of Prognosis (NCP) was assessed for the forecasting horizon 2004-2011. The hypothesis that combined forecasts is a suitable strategy of improving the predictions accuracy was tested. Only for the unemployment rate the combined forecasts based on IEF and NCP evaluations performed better than the initial forecasts. For inflation and exchange rate Dobrescu model of IEF provided better predictions, but the combined ones were more accurate than NCP expectations. The Dobrescu model predictions combined with ARMA static respectively dynamic forecasts and NCP estimations combined with ARMA static prognosis, respectively Dobrescu forecasts using EQ scheme for unemployment on a horizon of 2 years (2010-2011) improved the accuracy of forecasts made by both institutions, the combined predictions based on Dobrescu predictions and ARMA static ones using OPT scheme being the most accurate, according to U1 Theils’ statistic.

Suggested Citation

  • Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2012. "A Strategy To Improve The Macroeconomic Forecasts Accuracy In Romania," Journal of Academic Research in Economics, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Accounting and Financial Management Constanta, vol. 4(3 (Decemb), pages 293-309.
    • Handle: RePEc:shc:jaresh:v:4:y:2012:i:3:p:293-309
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    Cited by:

    1. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2014. "New Strategies to Improve the Accuracy of Predictions based on Monte Carlo and Bootstrap Simulations: An Application to Bulgarian and Romanian Inflation || Nuevas estrategias para mejorar la exactitud," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 18(1), pages 112-129, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    macroeconomic forecast; combined forecasts; accuracy; error; static/ dynamic forecast; prediction.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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