IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sgh/gosnar/y2025i3p68-87.html

Transfer zysku z gospodarki polskiej – skala i skutki fiskalne

Author

Listed:
  • Karolina Magdalena Konopczak
  • Aleksander Pawlak

Abstract

W artykule analizowano transfer zysku z gospodarki polskiej, zaproponowano także metodę kwantyfikacji skali i fiskalnych skutków tego zjawiska. W badaniu przyjęto podejście mikroekonomiczne, wykorzystując jednostkowe dane podatkowe i finansowe spółek działających w Polsce oraz implementując mikroekonometryczne metody badawcze. Otrzymane wyniki jednoznacznie wskazują na istotnie niższą średnią rentowność podatkową podmiotów należących do międzynarodowych grup kapitałowych w porównaniu ze spółkami krajowymi o prostej strukturze własnościowej, co dowodzi występowania transferu zysku z gospodarki polskiej. Zgodnie z najbardziej wiarygodnymi wynikami spośród otrzymanych spółki z kapitałem zagranicznym transferują ok. 20% swoich zysków za granicę, obniżając w ten sposób podstawę opodatkowania i powodując ubytek dochodów sektora finansów publicznych średnio o ok. 2,6 mld PLN rocznie, co stanowiło średnio ok. 6,4% dochodów fiskalnych z tytułu CIT w latach 2011–2021. Ze względu na obraną strategię empiryczną szacunek ten należy uznać za konserwatywny.

Suggested Citation

  • Karolina Magdalena Konopczak & Aleksander Pawlak, 2025. "Transfer zysku z gospodarki polskiej – skala i skutki fiskalne," Gospodarka Narodowa. The Polish Journal of Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, issue 3, pages 68-87.
    • Handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2025:i:3:p:68-87
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://gnpje.sgh.waw.pl/pdf-203717-129336
    File Function: Full text
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Richard K. Crump & V. Joseph Hotz & Guido W. Imbens & Oscar A. Mitnik, 2009. "Dealing with limited overlap in estimation of average treatment effects," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 96(1), pages 187-199.
    2. Petr Janský & Miroslav Palanský, 2019. "Estimating the scale of profit shifting and tax revenue losses related to foreign direct investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(5), pages 1048-1103, October.
    3. Katarzyna Bilicka & Evgeniya Dubinina & Petr Janský, 2022. "Fiscal consequences of corporate tax avoidance," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2022-97, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Egger, Peter & Eggert, Wolfgang & Winner, Hannes, 2010. "Saving taxes through foreign plant ownership," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 99-108, May.
    5. Dharmapala, Dhammika & Riedel, Nadine, 2013. "Earnings shocks and tax-motivated income-shifting: Evidence from European multinationals," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 95-107.
    6. Katarzyna Anna Bilicka, 2019. "Comparing UK Tax Returns of Foreign Multinationals to Matched Domestic Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(8), pages 2921-2953, August.
    7. Richard Bolwijn & Bruno Casella & Davide Rigo, . "An FDI-driven approach to measuring the scale and economic impact of BEPS," UNCTAD Transnational Corporations Journal, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
    8. Ho, Daniel E. & Imai, Kosuke & King, Gary & Stuart, Elizabeth A., 2007. "Matching as Nonparametric Preprocessing for Reducing Model Dependence in Parametric Causal Inference," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(3), pages 199-236, July.
    9. Dhammika Dharmapala, 2019. "Profit Shifting in a Globalized World," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 109, pages 488-492, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Garcia-Bernardo, Javier & Janský, Petr, 2024. "Profit shifting of multinational corporations worldwide," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    2. Thomas Tørsløv & Ludvig Wier & Gabriel Zucman, 2023. "The Missing Profits of Nations," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 90(3), pages 1499-1534.
    3. Valeria Merlo & Georg Wamser, 2024. "Profit-Shifting Elasticities, Channels, and the Role of Tax Havens: Evidence from Micro-Level Data," CESifo Working Paper Series 11045, CESifo.
    4. Javier Garcia-Bernardo & Petr Janský & Thomas Tørsløv, 2023. "Effective tax rates of multinational corporations: Country-level estimates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 18(11), pages 1-19, November.
    5. Katarzyna A. Bilicka & Michael P. Devereux & İrem Güçeri, 2024. "Tax Policy, Investment and Profit Shifting," NBER Working Papers 33132, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Petr Janský & Miroslav Palanský, 2019. "Estimating the scale of profit shifting and tax revenue losses related to foreign direct investment," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 26(5), pages 1048-1103, October.
    7. Langenmayr, Dominika & Liu, Li, 2023. "Home or away? Profit shifting with territorial taxation," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 217(C).
    8. Bakke Julia Tropina, 2023. "Firm performance following foreign acquisitions in Norway: Evidence of profit shifting?*," Nordic Tax Journal, Sciendo, vol. 2023(1), pages 1-21, December.
    9. Katarzyna Bilicka & André Seidel, 2020. "Profit shifting and corruption," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(5), pages 1051-1080, October.
    10. Krapf, Matthias & Staubli, David, 2025. "Regional variations in corporate tax responsiveness: Evidence from Switzerland," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    11. Federico Sallusti, 2025. "Measuring Profit Shifting Using “Resident” Information: The PSM-ROC Method," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 73(1), pages 267-315, March.
    12. Katarzyna Bilicka & Michael Devereux & Irem Güçeri, 2023. "Tax-Avoidance Networks and the Push for a “Historic” Global Tax Reform," Tax Policy and the Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 37(1), pages 57-108.
    13. Dobranschi, Marian & Nerudová, Danuše & Solilová, Veronika & Litzman, Marek, 2023. "An alternative measure of profit shifting and corporate income tax losses," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 70.
    14. Javier Garcia-Bernardo & Petr Janský & Thomas Tørsløv, 2022. "Decomposing Multinational Corporations’ Declining Effective Tax Rates," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 338-381, June.
    15. Nerudova, Danuse & Dobranschi, Marian & Solilová, Veronika & Litzman, Marek, 2023. "Onshore and offshore profit shifting and tax revenue losses in the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 119(C).
    16. Matthias Krapf & David Staubli, 2020. "The Corporate Elasticity of Taxable Income: Event Study Evidence from Switzerland," CESifo Working Paper Series 8715, CESifo.
    17. Dominika Langenmayr & Franz Reiter, 2022. "Trading offshore: evidence on banks’ tax avoidance," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 124(3), pages 797-837, July.
    18. Jennifer M. Alix-Garcia & Elizabeth N. Shapiro & Katharine R. E. Sims, 2012. "Forest Conservation and Slippage: Evidence from Mexico’s National Payments for Ecosystem Services Program," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 88(4), pages 613-638.
    19. Li Liang & Greene Tom, 2013. "A Weighting Analogue to Pair Matching in Propensity Score Analysis," The International Journal of Biostatistics, De Gruyter, vol. 9(2), pages 215-234, July.
    20. Koethenbuerger, Marko & Stimmelmayr, Michael, 2016. "Taxing multinationals in the presence of internal capital markets," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 58-71.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C55 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Large Data Sets: Modeling and Analysis
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H26 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Tax Evasion and Avoidance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sgh:gosnar:y:2025:i:3:p:68-87. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Grzegorz Konat (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/sgwawpl.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.