Dynamic Forecasting Rules and the Complexity of Exchange Rate Dynamics
This paper investigates the exchange rate dynamics implied by a heterogeneous agent model proposed in De Grauwe and Grimaldi (2006). The two groups of agents, chartists and fundamentalists, use simple forecasting rules and the ex post relative profitability to decide whether to switch to the other group. We extend this model by introducing a simple evolutionary selection mechanism which allows agents not only to switch between groups but also to adapt the forecasting rule of each group over time. Two results stand out: (i) This selection process naturally leads agents to choose forecasting rules over time which results in the convergence of the exchange rate to its fundamental value; and (ii) The learning rule is not robust to the introduction of shocks to the fundamental. Once we allow for random variation in the fundamental, the model exhibits again all of the nonlinear features discussed in De Grauwe and Grimaldi (2006): the disconnect puzzle, volatility clustering and fat tails.
To our knowledge, this item is not available for
download. To find whether it is available, there are three
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Volume (Year): 56 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (December)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.rebel-journal.org/|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Paul De Grauwe & Marianna Grimaldi, 2005. "The Exchange Rate and its Fundamentals in a Complex World," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 549-575, 08.
- repec:att:wimass:9530 is not listed on IDEAS
- Frankel, Jeffrey A & Froot, Kenneth A, 1986. "Understanding the U.S. Dollar in the Eighties: The Expectations of Chartists and Fundamentalists," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 0(0), pages 24-38, Supplemen.
- Xue-Zhong He & Carl Chiarella, 1999.
"Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset-Pricing Model,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1999
223, Society for Computational Economics.
- Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
- Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risks and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Research Paper Series 18, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
- De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
- Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996.
"A Rational Route to Randomness,"
9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
- Amilon, Henrik, 2008. "Estimation of an adaptive stock market model with heterogeneous agents," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 342-362, March.
- Hommes, C.H., 2010.
"The Heterogeneous Expectations Hypothesis: Some Evidence from the Lab,"
CeNDEF Working Papers
10-06, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
- Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007.
"Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
- repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
- Westerhoff Frank H. & Reitz Stefan, 2003.
"Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists,"
Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics,
De Gruyter, vol. 7(4), pages 1-15, December.
- Reitz, Stefan & Westerhoff, Frank, 2003. "Nonlinearities and Cyclical Behavior: The Role of Chartists and Fundamentalists," CFS Working Paper Series 2003/10, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
- De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2005. "Heterogeneity of agents, transactions costs and the exchange rate," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 691-719, April.
- Taylor, Mark P. & Allen, Helen, 1992. "The use of technical analysis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 304-314, June.
- Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998.
"Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
- de Jong, Eelke & Verschoor, Willem F.C. & Zwinkels, Remco C.J., 2010. "Heterogeneity of agents and exchange rate dynamics: Evidence from the EMS," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1652-1669, December.
- Lux, Thomas, 1998. "The socio-economic dynamics of speculative markets: interacting agents, chaos, and the fat tails of return distributions," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 143-165, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sen:rebelj:v:56:i:4:y:2011:p:454-472. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Petra Van den Bempt)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.