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Цена На Нефть. В Поисках Дна // The Price Of Oil. Reaching For The Bottom

Author

Listed:
  • VADIM Ponkratov VITAL’EVICH

    (Financial University)

  • В. Понкратов В.

    (Финансовый университет)

Abstract

The article is devoted to the dynamics assessment of oil prices since mid-2014 and the analysis of its determinants. It has been established that the cause of the current oil crisis was the continuing overproduction of oil, due to near-zero growth of the world economy and the market entry of a large numberof non-conventional hydrocarbon reserves, production of which has become profitable thanks to the ultra-high oil prices in 2006-2013. Taken together, this has led to a change in the landscape of the oil market and revealed the reluctance of member countries of OPEC to influence the price levels by reducing the supplyof oil for the fear of losing their market share. Prepared is the medium term forecast of oil prices dynamics according to the analysis of factors that determine it. Статья посвящена оценке динамики нефтяных цен с середины 2014 г. и анализу факторов, ее определяющих. Установлено, что причиной текущего нефтяного кризиса явилось длящееся перепроизводство нефти, обусловленное околонулевыми темпами роста мировой экономики и выходом на рынок большого количества нетрадиционных запасов углеводородов, добыча которых стала рентабельной благодаря сверхвысоким ценам на нефть в 2006-2013 гг. В совокупности это привело к изменению ландшафта нефтяного рынка и выявило нежелание стран - членов ОПЕК влиять на уровень цен, снижая предложение нефти и опасаясь потери рыночной доли. По результатам анализа факторов, определяющих динамику цены на нефть, подготовлен ее прогноз на среднесрочную перспективу.

Suggested Citation

  • VADIM Ponkratov VITAL’EVICH & В. Понкратов В., 2016. "Цена На Нефть. В Поисках Дна // The Price Of Oil. Reaching For The Bottom," Мир новой экономики // The world of new economy, Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации // Financial University under The Governtment оf The Russian Federation, issue 1, pages 32-37.
    • Handle: RePEc:scn:wnewec:y:2016:i:1:p:32-37
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