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Прогнозирование уровня инфляции при формировании региональных и муниципальных бюджетов // The Inflation Level Forecasting in Forming Regional and Municipal Budgets

Author

Listed:
  • R. Kolesov V.

    (Yaroslavl branch of Financial University)

  • A. Tarasova J.

    (Yaroslavl branch of Financial University)

  • G. Kozlov E.

    (Yaroslavl branch of Financial University)

  • Р. Колесов В.

    (Ярославский филиал Финансового университета)

  • А. Тарасова Ю.

    (Ярославский филиал Финансового университета)

  • Г. Козлов Е.

    (Ярославский филиал Финансового университета)

Abstract

The subject of the research is inflation level forecasting in forming, executing and analyzing the execution course of regional and municipal budgets. The purpose of the work is developing methods of inflation level evaluation to supply state and local authorities with necessary and sufficient operational data reflecting the specificity of respective regional economies concerning prognostic figures of monthly and yearly rates of inflation. The urgency of the research lies in the fact that the proposed approach to inflation level evaluation is relatively simple but at the same time effective and is based on the principles of integrity, responsiveness, economy, and effectiveness. The methodical base of the work is formal and dialectical logics used to reveal interconnections between inflation processes in the economy and of the procedures for long-term budget forecasting; as well as methods of deduction and induction employed to justify the approaches proposed; mathematics of logic was used to analyze the influence of the approaches on the regional and municipal budget indicators under present-day conditions. The authors suggest an analytical matrix containing the initial materials for inflation rate forecasting and make a try to develop a model of inflation rate forecasting that is based on the data of factual and prognostic consumer price index. It is concluded that the model of inflation rate forecasting is applicable for budget planning and analysis in specific regions and municipalities, budgetary institutions, as well as in the course of developing and realization of some regional and municipal budget funded projects, which appears to be important to increase analytical capacity of information relevant for external and internal users. Предмет исследования — прогнозирование уровня инфляции при формировании и анализе хода исполнения региональных и муниципальных бюджетов. Цель работы — выработка подхода к методике оценки уровня инфляции, позволяющей обеспечивать органы государственной власти и местного самоуправления необходимыми и достаточными оперативными данными, отражающими специфику экономики соответствующих регионов, о прогнозных значениях ежемесячного и годового уровня инфляции. Актуальность исследования — предложенный в статье подход к оценке уровня инфляции является относительно простым, но в то же время эффективным при оценке прогнозных значений уровня инфляции, основывающейся на принципах комплексности, оперативности, экономичности и эффективности. Методической основой работы являются формальная и диалектическая логики, использованные для выявления взаимосвязи инфляционных процессов в экономике, процедур долгосрочного бюджетного прогнозирования и планирования, дедукция и индукция, примененные при обосновании предложенных подходов, математическая логика, задействованная в ходе анализа их воздействия на показатели региональных и муниципальных бюджетов в современных условиях. В статье предложена аналитическая матрица, содержащая исходные материалы для прогнозирования уровня инфляции. Предпринята попытка разработать модель прогнозирования годового уровня инфляции, основанная на данных о фактических и прогнозных значениях индекса потребительских цен. В работе сделан вывод, что модель прогнозирования уровня инфляции применима в процессе бюджетного планирования и анализа на уровне отдельных регионов и муниципальных образований, бюджетных учреждений, а также при разработке и в ходе реализации отдельных проектов, финансирование которых предполагается осуществлять за счет средств региональных и муниципальных бюджетов. Применение данной модели позволит повысить аналитические возможности формируемой информации в интересах внешних и внутренних пользователей.

Suggested Citation

  • R. Kolesov V. & A. Tarasova J. & G. Kozlov E. & Р. Колесов В. & А. Тарасова Ю. & Г. Козлов Е., 2019. "Прогнозирование уровня инфляции при формировании региональных и муниципальных бюджетов // The Inflation Level Forecasting in Forming Regional and Municipal Budgets," Экономика. Налоги. Право // Economics, taxes & law, ФГОБУ "Финансовый университет при Правительстве Российской Федерации" // Financial University under The Government of Russian Federation, vol. 12(4), pages 102-110.
  • Handle: RePEc:scn:econom:y:2019:i:4:p:102-110
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. A. Kudrin & E. Goryunov & P. Trunin., 2017. "Stimulative monetary policy: Myths and reality," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 5.
    2. Pulay, Gyula & Máté, János & Németh, Ildikó & Zelei, Andrásné, 2013. "Budgetary Risks of Monetary Policy with Special Regard to the Debt Rule," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 58(1), pages 11-34.
    3. Darya V. Gorokhova, 2013. "Budget Risk Management of the Subjects of the Russian Federation: Modern View and Development Prospects," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 3, pages 55-62, September.
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