Assessing the economic impact of climate change (maximum and minimum temperature) on productivity of sorghum crop in Gadarif State, Sudan

This paper was prepared to estimate the current and projected relationship between climate change (temperature) and variability and the productinity of sorghum under rainfed mechanized farming system in Gadarif State. The study ultilized secondary data covering the period 1970-2014. The data analyzed using descriptive analysis, Bias Correction and Spatial Downscaling (BCSD) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The most important results revealed that an increasing trend of temperature indicating the evidence of existance of climate change in the State.The results also showed a drop in crop yield associated with an increase in maximum and minimum level of temperatures. As with respect to projection of future temperature and yield, two scenarios based on greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere for the period 2020-2100 were used. The best scenario assumed an RCP of 2.6 and the worst one assumed an RCP of 8.5.The results of best scenario predicted an expected increase yearly in maximum and minimum temperatures at rate of 0.015°C and 0.010°C respectively; and consequent decrease in crop yield at rate of 1.121 kg/fed/year in case of maximum temperature; and at rate of 0.618 kg/fed/year in case of minimum temperature. The result of the worst scenario predicted an expected yearly increase in maximum and minimum temperatures at 0.074°C and 0.081°C respectively, with consequent decline in crop yield at a rate of 5.235 kg/fed/year associated with maximum temperature and at rate of 4.844 kg/fed/year associated with minimum temperature. The effect of increase greenhouse gas concentration in future leads to increase maximum and minimum temperatures and decrease yield of sorghum in Gadarif State.