China-2025: Research and Innovation Landscape

As the second largest economy globally, China today is one of the drivers for changing the balance of forces worldwide. The country aims to become a global player on the high-tech product market, to make the transition from an investment-based to a knowledge-based economy, and become the largest consumer market that is attractive to other major international players, including the European Union. Aware of this trend, the European Commission initiated a foresight study to assess the future of science and innovation in China until 2025, the results of which we present in this paper. The foresight study’s objective was to identify Research and Innovation (R&I) priority areas and their development by 2025, aiming to contribute to the bilateral dialogue between the EU and China with the ultimate goal developing of a long-term cooperation strategy. Through a combination of desk-study analysis, a Delphi study, media scanning, crowd-sourcing platform, and a cross impact analysis, we analysed 16 critical drivers that play a substantial role in transforming China’s R&I landscape. The study showed a correlation between the different factors, and highlighted the strong impact of governance and the national economy on future developments. Taking into account these drivers and some critical uncertainties, we developed four plausible scenarios up to the year 2025. Being aware of these possible scenarios allows us to prepare in advance and establish a successful strategy for the future.