IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/vikjou/v41y2016i4p325-343.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Solving Traffic Problems in the State of Kerala, India: Forecasting, Regression and Simulation Models

Author

Listed:
  • Ramesh Bollapragada
  • Sudesh Poduval
  • Chetty Bingi S
  • Bhoomi Brahmbhatt

Abstract

Executive Summary Indian states have been facing traffic related issues including traffic congestions and accidents for decades. The situation has worsened with time due to the increasing population. This article investigates the causes behind the accidents and provides recommendations and measures that would bring forth an improvement in the traffic conditions. The research uses forecasting models to confirm the existence of traffic problem in the State of Kerala. The various reasons for the accidents were enumerated and classified. Using regression models, the relationship between the number of accidents, deaths, and injured were obtained. In addition, the relationship between the number of accidents and the number of vehicles on road were examined along with the type of vehicle, design of the roads, the design of traffic, and the design of road network. In addition, a simulation model is presented to study the effect of the change in design of roads on the traffic situation. As an example, a 15-minute time period can be used to count the number of vehicles of each type (buses, cars, and trucks) travelling in both directions on a major highway. This data can then be categorized into slow and fast moving traffic. The Mean time between arrivals, percentages of slow and fast vehicles, percentages of vehicles travelling in both directions can be calculated and used in ARENA simulation software to perform discrete event simulation. Various scenarios are simulated; and waiting times and potential number of accidents are found for each of the scenarios. Based on forecasting, regression and simulation models, this article provides several recommendations and managerial insights, which are believed to alleviate the traffic problems in the State of Kerala. The solution approaches from this research could be used for addressing similar traffic situations in other states of India, which could result in saving millions of lives over the next decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Ramesh Bollapragada & Sudesh Poduval & Chetty Bingi S & Bhoomi Brahmbhatt, 2016. "Solving Traffic Problems in the State of Kerala, India: Forecasting, Regression and Simulation Models," Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, , vol. 41(4), pages 325-343, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:vikjou:v:41:y:2016:i:4:p:325-343
    DOI: 10.1177/0256090916675532
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0256090916675532
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0256090916675532?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Moez Munir & Rameez Khalid & Muhammad Latif, 2017. "Route optimization for the cement industry under the CPEC initiative," Business Review, School of Economics and Social Sciences, IBA Karachi, vol. 12(2), pages 65-83, July-Dece.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:vikjou:v:41:y:2016:i:4:p:325-343. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.