IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/toueco/v31y2025i4p631-650.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Italian urban tourism predictions using the holiday Climate Index

Author

Listed:
  • Matteo Mazzarano
  • Giulia Galluccio
  • Simone Borghesi

Abstract

The tourism sector is a source of sustenance for local communities, a driver of fiscal revenues and a way to connect local sites to international guests. Its dependence on climate change exposes it to chronic risks such as slowly varying climate patterns. In this paper, we predicted tourism intensity (as the number of beds per square kilometres) according to three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) at the municipal level in Italy: 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5. We first estimated a statistical model of tourism intensity using the Holiday Climate Index (HCI) and other drivers. Then, we used the prediction of beds per Km2 to infer changes between 2004 and 2050 according to each RCP scenario of the HCI. We find complex heterogeneous patterns in exposure and a moderate positive effect in the RCP2.6 scenario. However, delayed (RCP4.5) or no climate policy at all (RCP8.5) scenarios present dire consequences for the tourism sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Matteo Mazzarano & Giulia Galluccio & Simone Borghesi, 2025. "Italian urban tourism predictions using the holiday Climate Index," Tourism Economics, , vol. 31(4), pages 631-650, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:31:y:2025:i:4:p:631-650
    DOI: 10.1177/13548166241277858
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/13548166241277858
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/13548166241277858?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:31:y:2025:i:4:p:631-650. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.