A Case Study of National Matriculation English Test Validity in Predicting Students’ English Performance in College

The National Matriculation English Test (NMET), also known as the Gaokao English Examination, is a high-stakes, large-scale selection test for tertiary education in China, with numerous provinces and regions adopting the standardized national test papers. The validity of the NMET has garnered extensive attention. To verify the NMET’s validity, it is essential to determine whether there is consistency between students’ actual English performance post-university admission and their NMET scores. This study compares the initial listening proficiency test results and first-year English achievement test scores of non-English majors at a local university in central China to their NMET scores, incorporating observations of the students’ learning processes and selective post-class interviews. The findings indicate that the NMET’s validity is relatively low regarding students’ listening proficiency, yet there is a higher degree of consistency between freshmen’s English achievement test results and their NMET scores. However, the predictive power of NMET scores for students’ college English performance diminishes over time. The consequences of the NMET also impact students’ academic performance in college, influenced by factors such as the test format and the application of scores in local contexts. This paper aims to contribute further empirical evidence to the NMET validation study and to highlight the importance of a smooth transition in English learning and teaching from the secondary to the tertiary level, advocating for assessments that facilitate learning and support students’ sustainable development.