Questioning the Reciprocal Effects Model of Academic Self-Concept and Achievement: A Reanalysis of a Meta-Analysis of Longitudinal Studies and a Simulation

A recent meta-analysis claimed to provide evidence that academic self-concept and achievement have reciprocal prospective effects on each other (reciprocal effects model). However, prospective effects were estimated while adjusting for a prior measurement of the outcome, and this method is susceptible to spurious findings due to correlations with residuals and regression to the mean. Here we re-analyze the meta-analytic effects and show that different plausible models can support opposing claims: either that self-concept had an increasing or a decreasing effect on achievement, and vice versa. Consequently, claims beyond a positive cross-sectional correlation between academic self-concept and achievement, including the reciprocal effects model, can be questioned. The findings were validated by analyses of simulated data, which indicated that true prospective effects were not necessary for the observed meta-analytic associations. We further propose the extended skill development model (ESDM) as a more parsimonious alternative to the reciprocal effects model.