IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/risrel/v231y2017i5p546-557.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Analytical failure probability model for generic gravity dam classes

Author

Listed:
  • Mohammad Amin Hariri-Ardebili

Abstract

Risk analysis of concrete dams and quantification of the failure probability are important tasks in dam safety assessment. The conditional probability of demand and capacity is usually estimated by numerical simulation and Monte Carlo technique. However, the estimated failure probability (or the reliability index) is dam-dependent which makes its application limited to some case studies. This article proposes an analytical failure model for generic gravity dam classes which is optimized based on large number of nonlinear finite element analyses. A hybrid parametric–probabilistic–statistical approach is used to estimate the failure probability as a function of dam size, material distributional models and external hydrological hazard. The proposed model can be used for preliminary design and evaluation of two-dimensional gravity dam models.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohammad Amin Hariri-Ardebili, 2017. "Analytical failure probability model for generic gravity dam classes," Journal of Risk and Reliability, , vol. 231(5), pages 546-557, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:231:y:2017:i:5:p:546-557
    DOI: 10.1177/1748006X17712663
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1748006X17712663
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/1748006X17712663?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:risrel:v:231:y:2017:i:5:p:546-557. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.