IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/pophec/v10y2011i3p237-262.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Learning juror competence: a generalized Condorcet Jury Theorem

Author

Listed:
  • Jan-Willem Romeijn

    (University of Groningen, The Netherlands, j.w.romeijn@rug.nl)

  • David Atkinson

    (University of Groningen, The Netherlands)

Abstract

This article presents a generalization of the Condorcet Jury Theorem. All results to date assume a fixed value for the competence of jurors, or alternatively, a fixed probability distribution over the possible competences of jurors. In this article, we develop the idea that we can learn the competence of the jurors by the jury vote. We assume a uniform prior probability assignment over the competence parameter, and we adapt this assignment in the light of the jury vote. We then compute the posterior probability, conditional on the jury vote, of the hypothesis voted over. We thereby retain the central results of Condorcet, but we also show that the posterior probability depends on the size of the jury as well as on the absolute margin of the majority.

Suggested Citation

  • Jan-Willem Romeijn & David Atkinson, 2011. "Learning juror competence: a generalized Condorcet Jury Theorem," Politics, Philosophy & Economics, , vol. 10(3), pages 237-262, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:pophec:v:10:y:2011:i:3:p:237-262
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ppe.sagepub.com/content/10/3/237.abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:pophec:v:10:y:2011:i:3:p:237-262. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.