Welfare Provision as Political Containment

Can we argue that pressures generated from grassroots politics are responsible for the rapid expansion and ethnically/racially uneven distribution of social assistance programs in emerging economies? This article analyzes the Turkish case and shows that social assistance programs in Turkey are directed disproportionately to the Kurdish minority and to the Kurdish region of Turkey, especially to the internally displaced Kurds in urban and metropolitan areas. The article analyzes a cross-sectional dataset generated by a 10,386-informant stratified random sampling survey and controls for possibly intervening socioeconomic factors and neighborhood-level fixed-effects. The results show that high ethnic disparity in social assistance is not due to higher poverty among Kurds. Rather, Kurdish ethnic identity is the main determinant of the access to social assistance. This result yields substantive support to argue that the Turkish government uses social assistance to contain the Kurdish unrest in Turkey. The Turkish government seems to give social assistance not simply where the people become poor, but where the poor become politicized. This provides support for Fox Piven and Cloward’s thesis that relief for the poor is driven by social unrest, rather than social need. The article concludes that similar hypotheses may hold true for other emerging economies, where similar types of social assistance programs have recently expanded significantly and have been directed to ethnic/racial groups.