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The Inflation Forecast


  • C. A. E. Goodhart

    (Financial Markets Group, London School of Economics, Monetary Policy Committee)


Given the long and variable time lags between interest rate changes and responses in output and inflation, an inflation forecast must lie at the heart of monetary policy. In the UK the Bank’s inflation forecast and Report were developed when the interest rate decision still lay with the Chancellor. Its, largely unchanged, continuation has led to certain tensions once that decision was delegated to a Monetary Policy Committee of independently responsible experts. In this paper the question is raised whether such a Committee should be jointly and individually responsible for the inflation forecast, and what might be considered as alternative procedures.

Suggested Citation

  • C. A. E. Goodhart, 2001. "The Inflation Forecast," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 175(1), pages 59-66, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:niesru:v:175:y:2001:i:1:p:59-66

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    Cited by:

    1. Berlemann, Michael, 2001. "Forecasting inflation via electronic markets: Results from a prototype market," Dresden Discussion Paper Series in Economics 06/01, Technische Universität Dresden, Faculty of Business and Economics, Department of Economics.
    2. Mark Harris & Paul Levine & Christopher Spencer, 2011. "A decade of dissent: explaining the dissent voting behavior of Bank of England MPC members," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 146(3), pages 413-442, March.
    3. Marco Vega, 2004. "Policy Makers Priors and Inflation Density Forecasts," Econometrics 0403005, EconWPA.
    4. Christopher Spencer, 2006. "Reaction Functions of Bank of England MPC Members: Insiders versus Outsiders," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0606, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
    5. Christopher Spencer, 2006. "The Dissent Voting Behaviour of Bank of England MPC Members," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0306, School of Economics, University of Surrey.

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