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The Deadly Cost of Informal Lending: An Economic Model of Agrarian Suicide in Punjab

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  • Daniel K. N. Johnson
  • Lakhwinder Singh
  • Kesar Singh Bhangoo
  • Tianyi (Lincy) Qin

Abstract

The Indian state of Punjab, which initially benefited greatly from the green revolution, has suffered from a dramatic rise in agrarian suicides for several decades. We use a carefully constructed sample of over 1,000 farmers in the epicentre, and build a three-stage model of agricultural production decisions across multiple input and multiple output choices, indebtedness from multiple sources and suicide via an IPWRA (inverse probability weighted regression adjustment) treatment model to trace the potential roots of the situation. Results show that the use of informal credit from commission agents by farmers accounts for 10 percentage points (or 20%) of all suicides in our sample, regardless of other household factors and choices.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel K. N. Johnson & Lakhwinder Singh & Kesar Singh Bhangoo & Tianyi (Lincy) Qin, 2025. "The Deadly Cost of Informal Lending: An Economic Model of Agrarian Suicide in Punjab," Millennial Asia, , vol. 16(4), pages 659-683, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:millen:v:16:y:2025:i:4:p:659-683
    DOI: 10.1177/09763996231180145
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