IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/medema/v6y1986i2p85-92.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic Analysis of Decision Trees Using Monte Carlo Simulation

Author

Listed:
  • Gregory C. Critchfield
  • Keith E. Willard

Abstract

The authors describe methods for modeling uncertainty in the specification of decision tree probabilities and utilities using Monte Carlo simulation techniques. Exact confidence levels based upon the underlying probabilistic structure are provided. Probabilistic measures of sensitivity are derived in terms of classical information theory. These measures identify which variables are probabilistically important components of the decision. These techniques are illustrated in terms of the clinical problem of anticoagulation versus observation in the setting of deep vein thrombosis during the first trimester of pregnancy. These methods provide the decision analyst with powerful yet simple tools which give quantitative insight into the structure and inherent limitations of decision models arising from specification uncertainty. The tech niques may be applied to complex decision models. Key words: decision analysis; sensitivity analysis; statistical analysis; statistical confidence; information theory. (Med Decis Making 6:85-92, 1986)

Suggested Citation

  • Gregory C. Critchfield & Keith E. Willard, 1986. "Probabilistic Analysis of Decision Trees Using Monte Carlo Simulation," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 6(2), pages 85-92, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:6:y:1986:i:2:p:85-92
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X8600600205
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0272989X8600600205
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0272989X8600600205?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert D. Rifkin, 1983. "Statistical Considerations in Medical Decision Models," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 3(2), pages 197-214, June.
    2. Karen Klein & Stephen G. Pauker, 1981. "Recurrent Deep Venous Thrombosis in Pregnancy," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 1(2), pages 181-202, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Keith E. Willard & Gregory C. Critchfield, 1986. "Probabilistic Analysis of Decision Trees Using Symbolic Algebra," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 6(2), pages 93-100, June.
    2. Shawn P. Curley & Stephen A. Eraker & J. Frank Yates, 1984. "An Investigation of Patient's Reactions to Therapeutic Uncertainty," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 4(4), pages 501-511, December.
    3. Jon F. Merz & Mitchell J. Small & Paul S. Fischbeck, 1992. "Measuring Decision Sensitivity," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 12(3), pages 189-196, August.
    4. Barry R. Davis & Lawrence M. Friedman & Edgar Lichstein, 1988. "The Prognostic Value of the Duration of the Ambulatory Electrocardiogram after Myocardial Infarction," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 8(1), pages 9-18, February.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:6:y:1986:i:2:p:85-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.