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The Role of Social Circle Perceptions in “False Consensus†about Population Statistics: Evidence from a National Flu Survey

Author

Listed:
  • Wändi Bruine de Bruin

    (Sol Price School of Public Policy, Department of Psychology, Schaeffer Center for Health Policy and Economics, and Center for Economic and Social Research, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA)

  • Mirta Galesic

    (Santa Fe Institute, Santa Fe, NM, USA
    Harding Center for Risk Literacy, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, Berlin, Germany)

  • Andrew M. Parker

    (RAND Corporation, Pittsburgh, PA, USA)

  • Raffaele Vardavas

    (RAND Corporation, Santa Monica CA, USA)

Abstract

Purpose. “False consensus†refers to individuals with (v. without) an experience judging that experience as more (v. less) prevalent in the population. We examined the role of people’s perceptions of their social circles (family, friends, and acquaintances) in shaping their population estimates, false consensus patterns, and vaccination intentions. Methods. In a national online flu survey, 351 participants indicated their personal vaccination and flu experiences, assessed the percentage of individuals with those experiences in their social circles and the population, and reported their vaccination intentions. Results. Participants’ population estimates of vaccination coverage and flu prevalence were associated with their perceptions of their social circles’ experiences, independent of their own experiences. Participants reporting less social circle “homophily†(or fewer social contacts sharing their experience) showed less false consensus and even “false uniqueness.†Vaccination intentions were greater among nonvaccinators reporting greater social circle vaccine coverage. Discussion. Social circle perceptions play a role in population estimates and, among individuals who do not vaccinate, vaccination intentions. We discuss implications for the literature on false consensus, false uniqueness, and social norms interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Wändi Bruine de Bruin & Mirta Galesic & Andrew M. Parker & Raffaele Vardavas, 2020. "The Role of Social Circle Perceptions in “False Consensus†about Population Statistics: Evidence from a National Flu Survey," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 40(2), pages 235-241, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:40:y:2020:i:2:p:235-241
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X20904960
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