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Threshold Analysis and Programs for Prevention of HIV Infection

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  • David R. Holtgrave
  • Noreen L. Qualls

Abstract

Background. Measuring the economic effectiveness of HIV-infection prevention activities poses special challenges in terms of behavioral change and health outcomes assessment. Methods. One way to address this difficulty is to employ threshold analysis to determine a level of cost per HIV infection averted above which society would seem unwilling to pay. The authors employ a cost-utility analytic framework to determine a monetary threshold for HIV prevention programs, subject base-case results to sensitivity analyses, and apply these results to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's fiscal year 1993 budget for extramural HIV prevention programs. Results. The monetary threshold for cost per HIV infection averted was calculated to be $417,000 in 1993 dollars, and ranged from $185,000 to $648,000 depending upon the dollar amount society would be willing to pay per quality- adjusted life year gained. Conclusions. Economic evaluations of particular HIV-infection prevention activities at least can begin by determining whether their levels of effectiveness are above or below this derived monetary threshold, and refinements beyond this dichoto mous evaluation can proceed as further data become available. Key words: HIV; AIDS; prevention; threshold analysis; cost-utility analysis. (Med Decis Making 1995;15:311-317)

Suggested Citation

  • David R. Holtgrave & Noreen L. Qualls, 1995. "Threshold Analysis and Programs for Prevention of HIV Infection," Medical Decision Making, , vol. 15(4), pages 311-317, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:medema:v:15:y:1995:i:4:p:311-317
    DOI: 10.1177/0272989X9501500402
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Edward H. Kaplan & Ron Brookmeyer, 1999. "Snapshot Estimators of Recent HIV Incidence Rates," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 47(1), pages 29-37, February.
    2. Afschin Gandjour & Amiram Gafni, 2013. "Internal validation of models with several interventions," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 14(6), pages 901-909, December.
    3. Margaret Brandeau & Gregory Zaric, 2009. "Optimal investment in HIV prevention programs: more is not always better," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 27-37, March.

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