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First comes the river, then comes the conflict? A qualitative comparative analysis of flood-related political unrest

Author

Listed:
  • Tobias Ide

    (School of Geography, 2281University of Melbourne)

  • Anders Kristensen

    (Department of Political Science, 1006Aarhus University)

  • Henrikas BartuseviÄ ius

    (Department of Political Science, 1006Aarhus University & Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO))

Abstract

Disasters triggered by natural hazards will increase in the future due to climate change, population growth, and more valuable assets located in vulnerable areas. The impacts of disasters on political conflict have been the subject of broad academic and public debates. Existing research has paid little attention to the links between climate change, disasters, and small-scale conflicts, such as protests or riots. Floods are particularly relevant in this context as they are the most frequent and most costly contemporary disasters. However, they remain understudied compared to other disasters, specifically, droughts and storms. We address these gaps by focusing on flood-related political unrest between 2015 and 2018 in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. Drawing on data from the Dartmouth Flood Observatory (DFO) and Armed Conflict Location and Event Dataset (ACLED), we find that flood-related political unrest occurs within two months after 24% of the 92 large flooding events recorded in our sample. Subsequently, a qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) shows that the simultaneous presence of a large population, a democratic regime, and either the exclusion of ethnic groups from political power or a heavy impact of the flood is an important scope condition for the onset of flood-related political unrest. This indicates that disaster–conflict links are by no means deterministic. Rather, they are contingent on complex interactions between multiple contextual factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobias Ide & Anders Kristensen & Henrikas BartuseviÄ ius, 2021. "First comes the river, then comes the conflict? A qualitative comparative analysis of flood-related political unrest," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(1), pages 83-97, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:58:y:2021:i:1:p:83-97
    DOI: 10.1177/0022343320966783
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Raul Caruso & Emma Galli & Giulia Tringali, 2025. "Does corruption trigger political violence? Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa (1970-2020)," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Politica Economica dipe0053, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    5. Vally Koubi & Quynh Nguyen & Gabriele Spilker & Tobias Böhmelt, 2021. "Environmental migrants and social-movement participation," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(1), pages 18-32, January.
    6. Laurence L. Delina & Lei Shi & Jon Gaviola & Rufa Cagoco‐Guiam, 2025. "Balancing Immediate Relief and Resilience: Centring Local Voices for Disaster Aid and Capacity Building in Climate‐Conflict Vulnerable Communities," Sustainable Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(3), pages 4589-4603, June.
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    8. Nils Petter Gleditsch, 2021. "This time is different! Or is it? NeoMalthusians and environmental optimists in the age of climate change," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 58(1), pages 177-185, January.

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