Refugees, ethnic power relations, and civil conflict in the country of asylum

Many countries that face forced migrant inflows refuse to admit these uprooted people premised on negative externalities such as increased insecurity associated with refugee presence. Also, the academic literature on civil conflict identified refugee movements as a factor contributing to the regional clustering of war. Case-based evidence suggests that refugees can disturb the ethnic setup in the country of asylum and thereby trigger instability. To enhance the yet limited systematic understanding of the role of refugees in violent conflicts, this study examines the linkage between forced migrants, transnational connections, and ethnic civil conflict in the country of asylum with a large-N analysis, 1975–2013, arguing that ethnic power politics in the asylum state are determinant for intrastate conflict onset after a refugee influx. Statistical analysis finds that groups are particularly prone to conflict if they are excluded from governmental power and simultaneously host ethnic kin refugees, because a co-ethnic refugee influx enlarges the demographic and political leverage of the kin group, possibly resulting in clashes with other groups in the country. Hence, refugees alone do not consistently influence armed violence – only in combination with political tensions in the receiving country. Therefore, host governments should pursue inclusionary policies towards their population, to prevent dangerous instability, instead of closing borders or blaming refugees for domestic problems.