IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/joupea/v49y2012i6p785-800.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Denial and punishment in the North Caucasus

Author

Listed:
  • Monica Duffy Toft

    (Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford)

  • Yuri M Zhukov

    (Department of Government, Harvard University)

Abstract

A growing literature on the subnational diffusion of armed conflict rests on the proposition that political violence triggers more violence, in the same locality and elsewhere. Yet state efforts to contain such uprisings remain largely unexplored, theoretically and empirically. Drawing on a mathematical model of epidemics, we formalize the logic of conflict diffusion and derive conditions under which state coercion might limit the spread of insurgent violence. Using a new dataset of insurgent and government violence in Russia’s North Caucasus from 2000 to 2008, we evaluate the relative effectiveness of four coercive strategies: (1) denial, which manipulates the costs of expanding insurgent activity to new locations, (2) punishment, which manipulates the costs of sustained fighting in contested areas, (3) denial and punishment, which does both, and (4) no action, which does neither. We find denial to be most effective at containing insurgent violence. Punishment is least effective, and even counterproductive. Not only does such a strategy fail to prevent the spillover of violence to new locations, but it may amplify the risk of continued fighting in contested areas. In the Caucasus, denial is found to be the least inflammatory counter-insurgency option for Russia. For it to succeed, Russia should physically isolate centers of insurgent activity from regions of nonviolence and avoid the temptation of punitive reprisals.

Suggested Citation

  • Monica Duffy Toft & Yuri M Zhukov, 2012. "Denial and punishment in the North Caucasus," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 49(6), pages 785-800, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:49:y:2012:i:6:p:785-800
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/49/6/785.abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    2. Dawn Brancati, 2007. "Political Aftershocks: The Impact of Earthquakes on Intrastate Conflict," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), pages 715-743.
    3. Patrick M. Regan, 2002. "Third-party Interventions and the Duration of Intrastate Conflicts," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), pages 55-73.
    4. repec:cup:apsrev:v:97:y:2003:i:01:p:75-90_00 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Stephan Haggard, 2000. "Political Economy of the Asian Financial Crisis, The," Peterson Institute Press: All Books, Peterson Institute for International Economics, number 107.
    6. Reinhart, Karmen & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2009. ""This time is different": panorama of eight centuries of financial crises," Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 77-114, March.
    7. Russell Smyth & Paresh Kumar Narayan, 2009. "A Panel Data Analysis of the Military Expenditure-External Debt Nexus: Evidence from Six Middle Eastern Countries," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 46(2), pages 235-250, March.
    8. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    9. David Sobek, 2010. "Masters of their domains: The role of state capacity in civil wars," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(3), pages 267-271, May.
    10. J Paul Dunne & Sam Perlo-Freeman & Aylin Soydan, 2003. "Military Expenditure and Debt in Small Industrialised Economies: A Panel Analysis," Working Papers 0306, Department of Accounting, Economics and Finance, Bristol Business School, University of the West of England, Bristol.
    11. James Raymond Vreeland, 2008. "The Effect of Political Regime on Civil War," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), pages 401-425.
    12. Schultz, Kenneth A. & Weingast, Barry R., 2003. "The Democratic Advantage: Institutional Foundations of Financial Power in International Competition," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 57(01), pages 3-42, December.
    13. Cameron G Thies, 2010. "Of rulers, rebels, and revenue: State capacity, civil war onset, and primary commodities," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(3), pages 321-332, May.
    14. J. Paul Dunne † & Sam Perlo-Freeman ‡ & Aylin Soydan §, 2004. "Military expenditure and debt in small industrialised economies: A panel analysis," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 125-132.
    15. Easterly, William, 2002. "How Did Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Become Heavily Indebted? Reviewing Two Decades of Debt Relief," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 30(10), pages 1677-1696, October.
    16. Kristian Skrede Gleditsch & Andrea Ruggeri, 2010. "Political opportunity structures, democracy, and civil war," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(3), pages 299-310, May.
    17. Lotta Harbom & Peter Wallensteen, 2010. "Armed Conflicts, 1946—2009," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(4), pages 501-509, July.
    18. Wibbels, Erik, 2006. "Dependency Revisited: International Markets, Business Cycles, and Social Spending in the Developing World," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(02), pages 433-468, April.
    19. Tomz, Michael & Wittenberg, Jason & King, Gary, 2003. "Clarify: Software for Interpreting and Presenting Statistical Results," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 8(i01).
    20. Alex Braithwaite, 2010. "Resisting infection: How state capacity conditions conflict contagion," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 47(3), pages 311-319, May.
    21. HÃ¥vard Hegre & Nicholas Sambanis, 2006. "Sensitivity Analysis of Empirical Results on Civil War Onset," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), pages 508-535.
    22. Halvard Buhaug, 2006. "Relative Capability and Rebel Objective in Civil War," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 43(6), pages 691-708, November.
    23. Richard Cantor & Frank Packer, 1996. "Determinants and impact of sovereign credit ratings," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 37-53.
    24. Bordo, Michael D. & White, Eugene N., 1991. "A Tale of Two Currencies: British and French Finance During the Napoleonic Wars," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(02), pages 303-316, June.
    25. Wintrobe,Ronald, 1998. "The Political Economy of Dictatorship," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521583299, December.
    26. Arvid Raknerud & HÃ¥vard Hegre, 1997. "The Hazard of War: Reassessing the Evidence for the Democratic Peace," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, pages 385-404.
    27. Marta Reynal-Querol, 2002. "Political systems, stability and civil wars," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 465-483.
    28. Meredith Reid Sarkees & Phil Schafer, 2000. "The Correlates of War Data On War: an Update To 1997," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 18(1), pages 123-144, February.
    29. Clague, Christopher & Keefer, Philip & Knack, Stephen & Olson, Mancur, 1999. "Contract-Intensive Money: Contract Enforcement, Property Rights, and Economic Performance," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 185-211, June.
    30. Jeffrey Herbst, 2004. "African Militaries and Rebellion: The Political Economy of Threat and Combat Effectiveness," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 41(3), pages 357-369, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nakao, Keisuke, 2017. "Denial vs. Punishment: Strategies Shape War, but War Itself Affects Strategies," MPRA Paper 81418, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Yuri M. Zhukov, 2014. "Theory of Indiscriminate Violence," Working Paper 365551, Harvard University OpenScholar.
    3. Yuri M. Zhukov & Charles H. Anderton & Jurgen Brauer, "undated". "On the Logistics of Violence," Working Paper 255276, Harvard University OpenScholar.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:joupea:v:49:y:2012:i:6:p:785-800. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (SAGE Publications). General contact details of provider: http://www.prio.no/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.