Russia: Systemic Transformation or Federal Collapse?

Most scholars have argued that the Russian Federation, having survived the turbulence of 1992-93, has slowly developed a durable and sustainable modus operandi. This article argues for the opposite. It notes that the constituent parts of the federation gradually secured greater constitutional and political legitimacy throughout Yeltsin's second-term presidency, even to the extent of regionalizing some federal military structures. They entered into economic alliances with newly privatized companies, created independent communication and information networks and, to a more limited extent, developed foreign economic policies. Although this drift towards growing regional autonomy was kept more or less in check by the centre's ability to contain the wilder excesses of regional governors, the 1998 `August Meltdown' disrupted the balance between centripetal and centrifugal forces within the federation by dramatically weakening the centre's power. As a consequence, the federal system of governance is disintegrating not by design but by default. Following an analysis of the extent to which federal transformation has occurred during 1998, the article charts the likely future trajectory of this process. It argues that as the centre is largely unable to combat the crisis, Russia will either become a very weak federation dominated by large regional blocs, or a confederation. The article concludes by suggesting that Russia's systemic transformation will affect our perceptions of security within the region and that this has important implications for Western policymakers.