European Security: New, Old and Borrowed

A conceptual distinction is made between the Cold War and the Cold War system. The former lasted from 1946-47 until about 1963, when the political freeze of East-West relations began to melt. However, the structural features of the system remained until 1989: the role of superpowers and politico-military blocs, the high peacetime level of military confrontation in Central Europe. This Cold War system was based on perceiving the risk of a major European war as both a problem (conflict escalation) and a solution (deterrence). However, over the years the dominant role of the superpowers and the alliances contributed to the management of tension reduction, and provided a framework for organizing negotiations. The system itself contributed to its own disappearance. Today, the organizational framework created during the years of the Cold War system plays a central role in managing the transformation towards increasing security dependence. Eventually, a comprehensive European security regime may emerge. Preparations for such a combined political and security order would seem to include developments on three dimensions: all-European security, military cooperation and politico-economic integration. Rather than systemic stability, the immediate objective should be predictability of change. In this situation, developing formal organizations is of secondary importance. What is urgent is to create a network of institutionalized rules for internal and international state behaviour.