A Unified Analysis of International Conflict and Cooperation

As part of a continuing effort to identify the structural components of international relations, a log-linear model simultaneously analyzing patterns of conflict and cooperation between nations is justified and developed. The model is applied to events data on dyadic relations between nineteen nations over the period between 1948 and 1978. Among the more important results derived from the analysis are the following: (1) When certain confounding factors are eliminated, international conflict and cooperation are inversely related both with respect to the initiation and the reception of interaction between nations. (2) Great powers dominate both the general initiation and the general reception tendencies for international interaction, but they do not dominate any other structural tendencies derived from the unified model. (3) A strong positive relationship exists between tendencies to initiate and to receive international conflict. The correlation between cooperative initiation and reception tendencies is much weaker. (4) Conflict interactions have a higher tendency to be reciprocated than do cooperative interactions, which could reflect the operation of a reciprocity norm. (5) Tendencies towards inconsistent behavior are commonplace in international relations. Great powers seem inclined to act with greater consistency than lesser powers. (6) Geographic proximity fosters intense interactions between countries, but proximity appears to have a stronger effect on the creation of conflict than of cooperative relations.