Identifying appropriate scenario termination rules for squad-level simulations of warfighter lethality

Small arms combat simulations are emerging as a method to convert raw human performance metrics into quantifiable lethality outcomes. Specifically, speed and accuracy measures can be directly converted into a percentage chance of winning a gunfight using small arms combat modeling. Although the technique provides an opportunity to clearly communicate implications to a military audience, there are numerous assumptions to this modeling technique that require further exploration. One critical assumption involves the termination rule, or criterion to identify when the combat simulation should end. The termination rule must be clearly identified because it will impact the casualties inflicted and suffered by each side during simulation. Here, we discuss the implications of three broad categories of termination rules: (1) total victory, (2) retreat criteria, and (3) resource limitations. Each approach has different scenarios that might be more or less advantageous to use as a termination rule. Taken together, this information should help improve lethality modeling procedures using different simulation techniques to convert human performance metrics into quantifiable chances of winning a combat engagement.