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The lethality paradox: Goodhart’s Law and the challenge of measuring lethality

Author

Listed:
  • Adam T Biggs
  • Joseph A Hamilton
  • Greg Huffman
  • Rachel R Markwald

Abstract

Military performance must be evaluated, and one of the most critical concepts to measure involves the lethal capabilities of a military force. However, there are multiple challenges that complicate any accurate performance assessment, including theoretical issues of measurement due to statistical irregularities and practical limitations due to the military context. Here, we describe the lethality paradox, which states that measuring lethality could be a self-defeating exercise despite its necessity. Specifically, the value of any collected metric may be inherently reduced by the act of measurement while, also, creating operational vulnerabilities for a military force. This paradox is conceived as an extension of Goodhart’s Law and incorporates the same challenges of a personnel gaming a set standard rather than developing the skill set supposedly measured by this standard. Our discussion identifies the limitations and applications of Goodhart’s Law to lethality while also concluding with several proposed solutions to different paradoxical challenges.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam T Biggs & Joseph A Hamilton & Greg Huffman & Rachel R Markwald, 2025. "The lethality paradox: Goodhart’s Law and the challenge of measuring lethality," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 22(2), pages 197-205, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:joudef:v:22:y:2025:i:2:p:197-205
    DOI: 10.1177/15485129231165527
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Adam T. Biggs & Dale A. Hirsch, 2022. "Using Monte Carlo simulations to translate military and law enforcement training results to operational metrics," The Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation, , vol. 19(3), pages 403-415, July.
    2. Campbell, Donald T., 1979. "Assessing the impact of planned social change," Evaluation and Program Planning, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 67-90, January.
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