Estimating the tactical impact of robot swarms using a semi-automated forces system and design of experiments methods

Militaries are developing autonomous robots to conduct missions such as reconnaissance and surveillance. Some of those robots are intended to operate in swarms. Because operational robot swarms are not yet available, doctrine developers will initially use constructive entity-level combat models to develop and test tactics for robot swarms. Design of experiments methods and retrodiction of the 1991 Battle of 73 Easting between US and Iraqi forces were used to calibrate a semi-automated forces system. The calibrated combat model was then used to estimate the tactical impact of a notional Iraqi robot swarm conducting reconnaissance and surveillance in that battle. The calibration ensured that the model’s parameters were accurate, enabling a reliable estimate of the swarm’s tactical impact. Additionally, the design of experiments methods produced estimates of the interaction of the robot swarm’s effect with the technologies of the combatants’ weapon systems. Simulation trials and statistical analysis showed that the tactical benefits of an Iraqi robot swarm were overshadowed by the advantage provided by the US forces’ thermal sights. However, additional trials indicated that if both sides had been equipped with optical sights only, the early warning provided to the Iraqi forces by a robot swarm could have had a significant effect on the battle’s outcome.