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The Underreported Death Toll of Wars: A Probabilistic Reassessment From a Survey with UCDP Coders

Author

Listed:
  • Paola Vesco
  • David Randahl
  • HÃ¥vard Hegre
  • Stina Högbladh
  • Mert Can Yilmaz

Abstract

Event datasets, such as those provided by the Uppsala Conflict Data Program (UCDP), provide high-quality data on conflict fatalities. However, such data are likely to suffer from an unknown extent of bias and uncertainties in the reports they are based on. Although a substantial literature documents reporting bias in conflict research, analyses that quantify this bias are mostly limited to single countries. Here, we combine a survey with UCDP coders and statistical modeling to derive a distribution of plausible number of fatalities given the number of battle-related deaths and the type of violence documented by the UCDP. We provide a generalizable, cross-national measure of uncertainty around UCDP reported fatalities that is more robust and realistic than UCDP’s documented low and high estimates, countering UCDP’s intrinsic tendency to under-estimate fatalities, and we make available a dataset and R package that can be applied to future releases of the UCDP data.

Suggested Citation

  • Paola Vesco & David Randahl & HÃ¥vard Hegre & Stina Högbladh & Mert Can Yilmaz, 2026. "The Underreported Death Toll of Wars: A Probabilistic Reassessment From a Survey with UCDP Coders," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 70(7-8), pages 1499-1521, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:70:y:2026:i:7-8:p:1499-1521
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027261423826
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