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The Double-Edged Sword: How State Capacity Prolongs Autocratic Tenure but Hastens Democratization

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  • Per F. Andersson
  • Jan Teorell

Abstract

This paper is concerned with state capacity and autocrat survival. We argue that state strength in autocracies increases leader tenure but reduces the stability of the regime itself; stronger autocracies run a higher risk of transitioning to democracy. This trade-off arises as a result of how state capacity affects the behavior of elite challengers. A stronger state reduces the likelihood of the ruler being ousted by force, inducing rival elites to switch tactics to peaceful support for democracy. An autocrat may prolong his tenure by investing in state capacity, but this brings on the downfall of the autocratic regime itself. We analyze the implications of our argument using a variety of historical sources providing information on 47 autocracies from 1800 to 2012. Our empirical findings, in part based on original data collection, are in line with the theoretical expectations: in strong states autocrats survive, but autocracies die.

Suggested Citation

  • Per F. Andersson & Jan Teorell, 2025. "The Double-Edged Sword: How State Capacity Prolongs Autocratic Tenure but Hastens Democratization," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 69(6), pages 980-1004, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:69:y:2025:i:6:p:980-1004
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027241293395
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    4. Treisman, Daniel, 2020. "Democracy by Mistake: How the Errors of Autocrats Trigger Transitions to Freer Government," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 114(3), pages 792-810, August.
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