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Citizens and Peace Mediations in Divided Societies: Identifying Zones of Agreement through a Conjoint Survey Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Neophytos Loizides
  • Charis Psaltis
  • Edward Morgan-Jones
  • Laura Sudulich
  • Raluca Popp
  • Tekin Baykiz

Abstract

How can areas of potential agreement be identified and endorsed by citizens in protracted conflicts? In an effort to answer this question, the article introduces a conjoint experiment across the ethnically and territorially split communities of Cyprus and tests a range of hypotheses about the structure of public opinion with respect to a future settlement. We test hypotheses on security and credible commitments, the legacy of past negotiations, as well as transitional justice mechanisms following United Nations plans to mediate the conflict between Greek and Turkish Cypriots. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we demonstrate that a zone of possible agreement (ZOPA) exists from a public opinion perspective. We specifically explore power-sharing in the context of security, provisions for the internally displaced, federal courts, and territorial readjustments and highlight their relative importance for public opinion interventions across conflict-ridden societies.

Suggested Citation

  • Neophytos Loizides & Charis Psaltis & Edward Morgan-Jones & Laura Sudulich & Raluca Popp & Tekin Baykiz, 2022. "Citizens and Peace Mediations in Divided Societies: Identifying Zones of Agreement through a Conjoint Survey Experiment," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 66(9), pages 1619-1649, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:jocore:v:66:y:2022:i:9:p:1619-1649
    DOI: 10.1177/00220027221108221
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hainmueller, Jens & Hopkins, Daniel J. & Yamamoto, Teppei, 2014. "Causal Inference in Conjoint Analysis: Understanding Multidimensional Choices via Stated Preference Experiments," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(1), pages 1-30, January.
    2. Grossman, Guy & Manekin, Devorah & Miodownik, Dan, 2015. "The Political Legacies of Combat: Attitudes Toward War and Peace Among Israeli Ex-Combatants," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 981-1009, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eto, Takeru, 2026. "Beneath the Surface: Measuring Hidden Indifference in Japanese Territorial Attitudes," SocArXiv nzbq3_v1, Center for Open Science.
    2. Charis Psaltis & Neophytos Loizides & Andreas Michael & Nikandros Ioannidis & Edward Morgan Jones & Laura Sudulich, 2025. "Natural resources co-management, green transition and divided societies - Zones of agreement in the Cyprus case using a conjoint survey experiment," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 213, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    3. Linnéa Gelot & Prabin B Khadka, 2025. "Social reintegration of former al-Shabaab militants: How formal channels help mitigate threat perceptions," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 62(6), pages 1820-1838, November.

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